I’m going to make a political prediction: Joe Miller is going to win the Alaskan senate race and the fault will be entirely Lisa Murkowski’s.
Because she will split Scott McAdams’ loose confederation of liberals, moderates, and Republicans who are against the Tea Party right down the middle. I am not making this up. Check out this Rasmussen poll and then get back to me.
According to the above poll, McAdams – an unknown before the primary – was only trailing Miller by 6 points on Aug, 31. Now, since Murkowski has entered the race, McAdams is trailing both Miller and Murkowski. And by a hefty margin.
Why should you care?
For several reasons:
- Murkowski had her chance to beat Miller during the primary. Even if we did not get the result we desired, the system still worked and we (and Murkowski) should respect it.
- Even if Murkowski does win, she will not be doing so as a Republican. This means that all of that “seniority” everyone is talking about will be stripped from her regardless.
- McAdams is a good candidate and not just because he isn’t Joe Miller. I am sure the not-Joe Miller fact attracted a lot of people to his cause (including me) but, now that we’ve actually had a chance to see him…he appears to be a good candidate.
- Murkowski is a die-hard conservative, and against many ideas and policies that I would consider progressive including gay marriage, pro-choice, and the recent health care reform bill. Why would liberals vote for someone like that if they had a viable option, which they do?
- The pro-Joe Miller constituent is far more united then those against it. As the above poll showed, Murkowski’s bid has divided those who remain against the Tea Party and taken only a small number of votes (6 points) away from Miller.
- A Miller victory means Alaska will have another ideological Sarah Palin in office; just this time at the national level.
What can we do about it?
Practically nothing besides voting for Scott McAdams. As my editor says half-seriously/half-jokingly, “Tell us how you really feel, Jeremia.” Well, this is how I really feel. Lisa Murkowski had her chance and missed it. Now, Alaska has to deal with the consequences.